Introduction to Decision Analysis

This hands-on Introduction to Decision Analysis gives you the tools required to make better, more informed and justifiable decisions. The focus is on thinking creatively about issues and then applying structured, formal analysis to spur action. A range of tools are considered, providing a comprehensive toolkit for those willing to enhanced the effectiveness of their organisational, or personal, decision-making.

The focus of this course is on lightweight, rapid, "agile" modelling---cycling rapidly between problem, definition, analysis, conclusions and actions. Emphasis is placed on structuring of assumptions, as opposed to mathematical modelling.

The course does not provide a "deep dive" into the techniques presented. It is intended to give you an overview of the field and act as a foundation for deeper study of the techniques that are most appropriate to your current and/or future decision-making needs.

Participants should be familiar with Microsoft Excel and be able to understand basic mathematical concepts (high-school level).

Anyone who is involved in decision-making! Including those who are looking to make important personal decisions, or those who support decision-makers.

Executives (decision-makers), project managers, strategy analysts, business analysts are data scientists are all formal job roles that would obviously benefit from the course, but everyone is involved in making decisions at some level. Participants should be familiar with Microsoft Excel.

Introduction to Decision Analysis Delivery Methods

• After-course instructor coaching benefit
• After-course computing sandbox included
• Learning Tree end-of-course exam included

Introduction to Decision Analysis Course Benefits

• Structure your decision analysis projects
• Understand and interpret uncertainty
• Recognise and mitigate psychological biases
• Uncover cause and effect relationships
• Evaluate alternatives using multi-criteria decision analysis
• Peer into the future using forecasting
• Apply game theory to develop strategy in the face of competition
• Explore complex issues using network analysis and simulation
• Leverage the benefits, and avoid the pitfalls, of teams in the decision-making process

Introduction to Decision Analysis Course Outline

Introduction to decision analysis

• What makes a good decision?
• History of decision analysis
• Problem solving
• Creative thinking
• Data science vs decision analysis
• Bulletproof Problem Solving
• OODA loop
• Conducting research

Uncertainty

• Definition and categorization
• Thinking probabilistically
• Expected value
• Visualising uncertainty
• Utility curves
• Psychological biases

Statistic modelling and inference

• Correlation
• Regression
• Monte Carlo methods

Evaluating options

• Forced ranking
• Decision matrices
• Multi-criteria decision analysis Decision trees

Forecasting

• Time series
• Expert judgement
• Prediction markets
• Scenario planning

Interactive decision-making

• Stakeholder analysis
• Game theory
• Confrontation analysis

Systems thinking

• Feedback loops
• Influence diagrams
• System dynamics
• Strategy mapping

Group decision making

• Wisdom of crowds
• Delphi method
• Voting